UK rents are speeding up again: what to watch in the ONS figures on 21 October

The short answer

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes its next private rent figures on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 9:30am. They will cover rents in September 2026.

The last release showed rents speeding up again. The average UK private rent was £1,400 a month in August 2026, up 3.8% on a year earlier. That was up from 3.7% in July and the fastest annual rise since December 2025. Rents in England rose 4.0%, and the North East and North West led at 5.8%. House prices rose just 1.4% over the same period.

HomeLet's figures for new tenancies in September, published last week, point the same way: a record average of £1,387, up 3.3% on a year ago.

For your own rent reviews, the headline figure is context, not evidence. Since 1 May 2026 a tenant can challenge a section 13 increase at the tribunal, which looks at what similar homes near you actually let for.

Key facts

• The ONS's next "Private rent and house prices, UK" release is due on 21 October 2026 at 9:30am. ONS release calendar

• The average UK monthly private rent rose 3.8% in the 12 months to August 2026, to £1,400. That was up from 3.7% in July and the highest annual rate since December 2025. ONS, September 2026

• Average rents were £1,459 in England (up 4.0%), £846 in Wales (up 4.3%) and £1,013 in Scotland (up 1.1%). In Northern Ireland they were £874 in June (up 1.6%). ONS, September 2026

• In England, annual rent inflation was highest in the North East and North West (both 5.8%) and lowest in the South East (3.0%). London rose 3.5%, to an average of £2,332. ONS, September 2026

• The average UK house price rose 1.4% in the 12 months to July 2026, to £273,000. London prices fell 3.3%. ONS, September 2026

• HomeLet puts the average UK rent on new tenancies in September 2026 at a record £1,387, up 0.4% on August and 3.3% on a year earlier. It estimates tenants spend 32.1% of their income on rent. Landlord Today

Why the ONS figure is different from the others

You will see several rent figures in the news this week, and they rarely agree. They measure different things:

• ONS (Price Index of Private Rents): what tenants are paying across new and existing tenancies. It moves slowly because most tenants are mid-tenancy. It is the official measure.

• Letting indices such as HomeLet: rents agreed on new tenancies only. They react faster to the market, but can swing month to month.

• Portal asking rents: what landlords advertise. Useful for spotting the direction of the market, but not what tenants actually agreed to pay.

So when the ONS figure lags behind a portal's figure, it does not mean one of them is wrong. Rents on new lets are often the first to move, and the ONS catches up as tenancies renew.

What to watch for on Wednesday

Does growth keep speeding up? UK annual rent inflation went from 3.3% in June to 3.7% in July and 3.8% in August. Another rise would confirm that rents are re-accelerating after slowing through the first half of the year. A dip back would suggest the summer pick-up was short-lived.

The regional gap. The North East and North West are rising almost twice as fast as the South East. If you let in the North, your local market may be moving much faster than the national figure suggests. If you let in London or the South East, the reverse may be true.

Rents against house prices. Rents are rising well ahead of house prices (3.8% against 1.4%). For landlords that means gross yields are creeping up. Paragon's latest figures put the average buy-to-let yield at a 15-year high.

Revisions. The latest UK figures are provisional. The ONS can revise July and August when it publishes September, so compare the new release with its revised numbers, not last month's headline.

What it means for your rent reviews

Since 1 May 2026, a section 13 notice on Form 4A is the only way to raise the rent on an assured periodic tenancy in England. You must give at least two months' notice, and you can only raise the rent once a year. If the tenant challenges it, the tribunal sets the lower of the open-market rent and the rent you proposed.

That changes how you should use these figures:

• Use national and regional figures as background, not evidence. A tribunal wants to know what similar homes near you actually let for. HMCTS guidance says agreed lettings carry more weight than advertised rents. Our guide on how to evidence a section 13 rent increase explains what to collect.

• Don't simply add the ONS percentage to your rent. A 3.8% national average says little about a two-bed flat in your street. Your property's condition, size and location matter more.

• Check your dates before you serve. The new rent cannot start until 52 weeks after the tenancy began or the last increase took effect. Our free Section 13 rent increase calculator works out the earliest start date and the latest date to serve Form 4A.

• Keep affordability in view. With tenants spending around a third of their income on rent, a large increase can turn a reliable tenant into an arrears case or an empty month. Compare the extra rent with what a void and re-letting would cost you.

A quick checklist for this week

1. Note the rent and tenancy start date (or last increase date) for each of your tenancies.
2. Check which tenancies are more than a year past their last increase.
3. Look up what comparable homes nearby have actually let for recently, not just what is advertised.
4. Read Wednesday's ONS figures for your nation and region as context.
5. Decide on any increase for each property on its own evidence, and serve Form 4A with at least two months' notice.

If you keep your tenancies in AskPortfoliq, each one's rent, start date and payment record is in one place, so step one takes minutes. You can see how it works.

We will update this article with the September figures after the ONS publishes them on 21 October.

Sources

• ONS: Private rent and house prices, UK, September 2026
• ONS release calendar: Private rent and house prices, UK, October 2026
• Landlord Today: Rents reach another record high (HomeLet Rental Index, September 2026)
• GOV.UK: Assured tenancy forms from 1 May 2026 (Form 4A)
• GOV.UK: Apply for an open-market rent determination